On March 25, 2026, Cox Automotive published its latest U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast, projecting March sales at roughly a 15.8 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), essentially flat with February. That steadiness comes amid rising uncertainty from a war in the Middle East, persistent affordability pressures, and other macroeconomic headwinds.
The firm expects March unit volume of about 1.37 million vehicles. That is down 14.2 percent from the tariff-driven surge in March 2025, when SAAR topped 17.9 million, but it is roughly 14.3 percent higher than February, in line with March’s typical seasonal strength.
Cox Automotive points out that early 2026 sales have tracked the upper-15-million SAAR range seen in the final three months of 2025. Despite that steadiness, every month of the first quarter shows year-over-year declines, leaving total Q1 volume on pace to fall 6.5 percent versus Q1 2025.
Electric vehicle demand is slipping faster. Cox forecasts Q1 EV sales down 28 percent from the same quarter a year earlier, reflecting softer consumer interest and the broader affordability drag on pricier models.
The company kept its full-year 2026 outlook at a 15.8 million SAAR, which would be a 2.6 percent decline from 2025 and unchanged from previous projections. That baseline assumes geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility will ease; Cox warns that prolonged disruptions or further volatility could push demand lower.
“Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.”
The forecast paints a market that has stabilized but not regained momentum after last year’s pre-tariff buying surge. For dealers and OEMs, the message is familiar: steady volume, tighter margins on growth, and continued sensitivity to prices and global events.
Source: https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/cox-automotive-forecast-mar-2026-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/
