Cox Automotive released its latest U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast on March 25, 2026, and expects the March pace to remain essentially unchanged from February. The firm projects a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 15.8 million units, despite rising uncertainty tied to the war in the Middle East that has pushed fuel prices higher and roiled oil markets.
The forecast calls for a clear step back from last year’s tariff-fueled highs. Total volume for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 6.5 percent lower than Q1 2025. Electric vehicle sales are projected to fall steeply, down 28 percent year over year in the first quarter, a drop Cox attributes to the loss of federal tax incentives and softer demand after a brief surge in late 2025.
Hybrids tell a different story. Strong results from Toyota and Honda have helped hybrids grow and provided some ballast for overall sales as EV momentum cools.
Senior economist Charlie Chesbrough summed up the market this way: ‘Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by. Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.’
Cox Automotive left its full-year 2026 sales pace forecast unchanged at 15.8 million units, which would be a 2.6 percent decline from 2025 if conditions follow the forecast. The firm said that outcome assumes geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility ease in the coming months; prolonged disruptions would create additional downside risk to demand.
The report highlights broader pressures facing the industry: vehicle transaction prices averaging above $50,000, tariff impacts on supply chains, and shifting consumer preferences toward hybrids amid EV slowdowns. Those external factors, combined with changing incentives, are complicating decisions for dealers, manufacturers, and investors as they navigate an uncertain 2026.
Full report: https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260325cl19150/cox-automotive-forecast-new-vehicle-sales-pace-to-hold-steady-in-march-despite-the-uncertainty-of-war-in-the-middle-east
