USTMA Forecasts Modest Growth in U.S. Tire Shipments
According to Rubber World, the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association released its February 2026 shipment forecast on March 4-5, 2026. The association projects total U.S. tire shipments will reach 338.9 million units in 2026, a modest rise from 336.3 million units in 2025 and a new high above the previous record of 337.3 million units set in 2024. That figure also comfortably exceeds the 332.7 million units recorded in 2019, underscoring continued recovery and growth since the pandemic years.
Original equipment tire shipments, which supply automakers directly, are forecast to increase across passenger, light truck, and heavy truck categories. USTMA expects an overall OE gain of about 0.8 million units versus 2025. Replacement tires, the aftermarket segment that drivers buy to replace worn tires, are projected to grow by roughly 1.7 million units in the same categories, with passenger replacement tires representing the largest single volume share.
Industry analysts point to steady replacement demand as the primary engine of the growth. They cite ongoing economic activity, continued reliance on personal vehicles for daily travel, and routine commercial vehicle maintenance as the main drivers. Those factors have kept tire consumption robust even as supply chains normalize.
USTMA stressed the market’s resilience in the face of lingering pandemic-era disruptions and provided a detailed category-by-category breakdown in its annual factbook and newsroom resources. Those materials offer the full year-over-year tables and additional context behind the forecast.
The projection highlights the sector’s mixed dynamics, with incremental gains in light truck and truck replacement segments alongside the dominant passenger tire market. For manufacturers, fleets, and aftermarket retailers, the outlook suggests steady demand rather than a dramatic rebound or decline, making inventory planning and production pacing important through 2026.
